Model proof
We publish our hit rate. Nobody else does.
Every number below comes straight from the production model — walk-forward backtests against realized breakout events (funding rounds, acquisitions, breakouts logged by users). No cherry-picking: the queries that render this page are the same ones the model is graded on internally.
Latest walk-forward backtest · 2026-06-13 · model historical-financing
100%
Precision — top-3 picks that went on to a breakout event
50%
Recall — breakouts the model had flagged in advance
0.67
F1 — balance of the two
548d
Lookback window, rolling train/test folds
Calls the model made early
Companies the model placed in decile 8+ before a realized breakout event.
Retrospective calls publish here automatically as breakout outcomes are logged against the live universe. Check back shortly.